Author Topic: Tech bubble burst is nigh  (Read 14367 times)

Offline vooke

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2017, 07:10:29 PM »
I think the problem with tech companies is not 'over investment' but rather voodoo valuations that conjure astronomical values for financially stillborn or dying entities.

Basic finance/economics/accounting tells me that cash flow is key. A company that is bleeding cash won't live long.

How Sillicon works is, come up with an idea, hype it, incorporate, hype it even further before offloading shares vide private placement to venture capitals. Start ups are allowed to bleed, make losses as they get their footing, during this time, necessary cash comes from the investors. If they succeed this period, they go public and transfer the monkey to the public.

A good example is Uber.
It's model is not viable and its value proposition is so easily replicable that you wonder what they were smoking before assigning it such voodoo valuation. It's got lots of cash, about $9B and is burning about $2B per year. So it can run for another three years before going back to the investors for more.

What about the established techs like say Google of Facebook? These have no cash flow problems, but their model is challenged. Charging advertisers billions for bots clicking on an ad is not delivering value to them. So digital advertising is shrinking.

And so on...but overvaluation is IT. That's what ate Snapchat,is eating twirra, and I have no doubt is eating Telsa. There is no way in God's wretched world Tessa can be valued more than GM given their respective annual sales
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/11/tesla-gm-comparison-market-share-income-valuation/


Here's a 7 part series on Uber
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/can-uber-ever-deliver-part-one-understanding-ubers-bleak-operating-economics.html
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Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2017, 08:27:53 PM »
Omollo lol.

There are thousands of uninhabited island on this glorious planet called Earth.

If these wackos were that serious about Mars, you'd think they'd try to inhabit antarctica first. Mars for the most part is colder than Antarctica.

Obviously they need some hullabaloo for the marketing. But I believe antarctica, Greenland, etc are off the mark for climatic reason - as in inhabiting them would further tip the ecological balance causing melting glaciers. Apparently we have enough carbon & green gas in the atmosphere so antarctica must be left alone.
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #22 on: August 12, 2017, 08:53:33 PM »
Omollo lol.

There are thousands of uninhabited island on this glorious planet called Earth.

If these wackos were that serious about Mars, you'd think they'd try to inhabit antarctica first. Mars for the most part is colder than Antarctica.

Going to another part of the world will not help.   We already have people messing up their countries and then doing everything possible to move to better places.

What's more, you don't take into account that eventually the whole planet will be messed up.   Where are you going to put your igloo after the Antarctica has melted into a large pool of water?

The only long-term solution for good people is to move as far away as possible from the bad lot that is causing ruin.  That is where Elon Musk comes in.  The only other option is the "Australian" one  of packing off the bad people to another planet, but I can't imagine how it would be done.
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Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #23 on: August 12, 2017, 08:54:56 PM »
veri - what do you think of Bitcoin? -is it a good investment? It's 3800$ per bitcoin right now.





I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #24 on: August 12, 2017, 08:57:34 PM »
I think the problem with tech companies is not 'over investment' but rather voodoo valuations that conjure astronomical values for financially stillborn or dying entities.

Basic finance/economics/accounting tells me that cash flow is key. A company that is bleeding cash won't live long.

How Sillicon works is, come up with an idea, hype it, incorporate, hype it even further before offloading shares vide private placement to venture capitals. Start ups are allowed to bleed, make losses as they get their footing, during this time, necessary cash comes from the investors. If they succeed this period, they go public and transfer the monkey to the public.

A good example is Uber.
It's model is not viable and its value proposition is so easily replicable that you wonder what they were smoking before assigning it such voodoo valuation. It's got lots of cash, about $9B and is burning about $2B per year. So it can run for another three years before going back to the investors for more.

What about the established techs like say Google of Facebook? These have no cash flow problems, but their model is challenged. Charging advertisers billions for bots clicking on an ad is not delivering value to them. So digital advertising is shrinking.

And so on...but overvaluation is IT. That's what ate Snapchat,is eating twirra, and I have no doubt is eating Telsa. There is no way in God's wretched world Tessa can be valued more than GM given their respective annual sales
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/11/tesla-gm-comparison-market-share-income-valuation/


Here's a 7 part series on Uber
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/can-uber-ever-deliver-part-one-understanding-ubers-bleak-operating-economics.html

I agree most are over-valued yes - like Snapchat. The big ones like Facebook are divesting really fast while they can into media, drones, etc - so as not to sink.

Tesla is not valued over GM & Daimler for flimsy reasons. Wall Street analysts are quite experienced and a good lot (50%+) will tell you the future potential of Tesla is superb. It is likely to snatch a huge chunk of the global auto market - so GM and others suffer value stagnation for this. Tesla's biggest weakness is overdependence on Elon Musk - it's his "iron man" abilities on which the magical growth is pegged. If he gets a flu the stock slides.

Uber - it is not overvalued at $60B. The model is not easy to replicate. Its strength is not technology but market dominance - due the current fragmented nature of the taxi business worldwide - Uber's strategy is to zoom in like a hawk and lock the entire market by low rates and buy-outs. It succeeded until it came face-to-face with unions and local laws in some places like Italy and I think Mexico. Of course competition has popped up - like Lyft & Didi - but there will be a few global behemoths in the end - and the cash-bleeding will stop.

I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #25 on: August 12, 2017, 09:10:55 PM »
I could see that possibility for asteroids.  Planets are terrible candidates for extraction unless you stay there.  The cost of getting the stuff out will outweigh its worth.

Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.
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Offline Omollo

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #26 on: August 12, 2017, 09:23:39 PM »
I was just exploring some of those gains.

Omollo honestly this is apolitical - there are multiple gains to be had - especially resource-wise. It is a fact that the earth is increasingly resource-depleted and in need for a supplement. Political or social disaffection is not a reason to leave the planet - just the country.

An individual planning to move 1M people to Mars... to create a civilization - now that is something to behold. The one promising a trip to Canaan - biblical :D - not so much.

... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Omollo

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #27 on: August 12, 2017, 09:28:49 PM »
I think the Australian Option has been given a bad name for short term reasons. Look at how it has turned out?

The only problem is with the courts as they are not many "qualified" persons would travel.

Going to another part of the world will not help.   We already have people messing up their countries and then doing everything possible to move to better places.

What's more, you don't take into account that eventually the whole planet will be messed up.   Where are you going to put your igloo after the Antarctica has melted into a large pool of water?

The only long-term solution for good people is to move as far away as possible from the bad lot that is causing ruin.  That is where Elon Musk comes in.  The only other option is the "Australian" one  of packing off the bad people to another planet, but I can't imagine how it would be done.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #28 on: August 12, 2017, 09:37:28 PM »
I could see that possibility for asteroids.  Planets are terrible candidates for extraction unless you stay there.  The cost of getting the stuff out will outweigh its worth.

Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

:) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #29 on: August 12, 2017, 10:11:49 PM »
:) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?

Back in 1865 Jules Verne came up with an idea of sending a man to the moon.    He wrote about it in a book entitled "From the Earth to the Moon".  The basic idea was that a man would be put into a capsule that would get stuffed down the barrel of a really long gun; a large load of explosive would then be ignited to send the Hero on his way.    Verne looked into the technology and did all sorts of calculations.  Even determined that Florida (now home of the Kennedy Space Centre) would be the right place for the "launch".   Great book.  People consider it all a great joke, fantastic entertainment, and in 1902 a movie was even made of it--Le Voyage dans la Lune (A Trip to the Moon)---that was a huge entertainment success.

Later on, some Russian guy---one Konstantin Tsiolkovsky---looked into the matter and determined that the barrel of the gun would be too long to be practical.  But he had another idea, based on what he was studying at the time---rockets---and he wrote a bunch of papers entitled "Exploration of Outer Space by Means of Rocket Devices".   

<fast forward><fast forward>

Apollo 11 Commander, Neil Armstrong:

Quote

Some joke.
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Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #30 on: August 12, 2017, 10:13:04 PM »
I think the Australian Option has been given a bad name for short term reasons. Look at how it has turned out?

Considering that the place is full of Australians, I'd say it turned out rather badly.
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Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #31 on: August 12, 2017, 10:14:30 PM »
I could see that possibility for asteroids.  Planets are terrible candidates for extraction unless you stay there.  The cost of getting the stuff out will outweigh its worth.

Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

 :) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?


He is talking about a Mars cycler.  One made out of an asteroid.  I have heard of terrariums made out of asteroids, but a cycler is new.  It does address the costs of moving stuff between celestial bodies though.
"I freed a thousand slaves.  I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves."

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Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #32 on: August 12, 2017, 10:48:28 PM »
I could see that possibility for asteroids.  Planets are terrible candidates for extraction unless you stay there.  The cost of getting the stuff out will outweigh its worth.

Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

 :) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?


He is talking about a Mars cycler.  One made out of an asteroid.  I have heard of terrariums made out of asteroids, but a cycler is new.  It does address the costs of moving stuff between celestial bodies though.

He makes it seem that asteroid motion is manageable - is it? Perhaps he means an artificial asteroid? - which is a rocket.

Musk's vision is a complete "interplanetary transport system" - the moon and Mars are just starting points. We shall be hopping between various planets or bodies as we do now between the continents. I see no reason to exclude celestial bodies - which is what planets are, just huger.
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #33 on: August 12, 2017, 11:04:45 PM »
Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

 :) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?


He is talking about a Mars cycler.  One made out of an asteroid.  I have heard of terrariums made out of asteroids, but a cycler is new.  It does address the costs of moving stuff between celestial bodies though.

He makes it seem that asteroid motion is manageable - is it? Perhaps he means an artificial asteroid? - which is a rocket.

Musk's vision is a complete "interplanetary transport system" - the moon and Mars are just starting points. We shall be hopping between various planets or bodies as we do now between the continents. I see no reason to exclude celestial bodies - which is what planets are, just huger.


In theory it is, if you apply enough energy.  The cycler concept, in general, is more akin to an airport tram but it is interplanetary and relies on orbital mechanics.  So you have a body in "permanent" motion between Mars and earth, or earth and the moon.  When it arrives at one planet, passengers can board it using a short trip on a rocket launched to coincide with the rendezvous and ride it back to the other planet.

So that concept would actually make Elon's ideas more feasible.
"I freed a thousand slaves.  I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves."

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Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #34 on: August 12, 2017, 11:35:12 PM »
Asteroids themselves could be mined, but their high-speed movement etc. likely to cause problems.  They could however be used to address what you claim will be high transportation costs.    Something like this: Once your stuff has been mined on Mars, the robots use a rocket to "upload it" (and another rocket) onto a passing asteroid headed near earth.     When the asteroid gets close enough, the second rocket fires to  "download" the package from the asteroid, and, with the help of GPS, drop it into your backyard or some other suitable place.

 :) This stuff is all a joke to you isn't it?


He is talking about a Mars cycler.  One made out of an asteroid.  I have heard of terrariums made out of asteroids, but a cycler is new.  It does address the costs of moving stuff between celestial bodies though.

He makes it seem that asteroid motion is manageable - is it? Perhaps he means an artificial asteroid? - which is a rocket.

Musk's vision is a complete "interplanetary transport system" - the moon and Mars are just starting points. We shall be hopping between various planets or bodies as we do now between the continents. I see no reason to exclude celestial bodies - which is what planets are, just huger.


In theory it is, if you apply enough energy.  The cycler concept, in general, is more akin to an airport tram but it is interplanetary and relies on orbital mechanics.  So you have a body in "permanent" motion between Mars and earth, or earth and the moon.  When it arrives at one planet, passengers can board it using a short trip on a rocket launched to coincide with the rendezvous and ride it back to the other planet.

So that concept would actually make Elon's ideas more feasible.

If it were I doubt Elon would have missed it. He is minimalist and reuses rockets. Indeed his spaceships are being designed to work just as you describe - except they are, well, spaceships. They will pry space and "dock" in orbit waiting for rockets to ferry travelers & cargoes to and from spaceports on Earth, Mars, Europa, etc.

You made note of the inhabitability of Mars recently... that is well known to Elon. The most difficult part of the Mars program is setting up habitat there - but it does not appear as hostile as you make it seem. He reckons setting up cities will do the trick - food, housing, medicine, etc - i.e. creating a basic human life system. Air does not seem to be one of the problems to be solved. Just move a million diverse folks and voila - the first Martians!

Cycler asteroid... cracking this does not sound easy at all. Terrariums must be just implants / installations - that are self-contained and just expected to survive as experiments.
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #35 on: August 12, 2017, 11:47:22 PM »
If it were I doubt Elon would have missed it.

People can miss all sort of things, even if they have really big brains.   Or they might just decide to ignore certain things, because they think they have better ideas.  A better counter to Terminator's comment would be  an argument as to why they would not make Elon's ideas more feasible.   

Quote
Cycler asteroid... cracking this does not sound easy at all.

None of it is easy.   Not even those ideas of Elon's that you have accepted.   But "hard" is not "impossible".   
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Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #36 on: August 13, 2017, 12:15:34 AM »
Wall Street analysts are quite experienced ...

Those are the guys who mostly missed Madoff (one of their own), gave us Theranos, etc.
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Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #37 on: August 13, 2017, 12:18:31 AM »
If it were I doubt Elon would have missed it.

People can miss all sort of things, even if they have really big brains.   Or they might just decide to ignore certain things, because they think they have better ideas.  A better counter to Terminator's comment would be  an argument as to why they would not make Elon's ideas more feasible.   

Quote
Cycler asteroid... cracking this does not sound easy at all.

None of it is easy.   Not even those ideas of Elon's that you have accepted.   But "hard" is not "impossible".   

What is a cycler asteroid?
I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #38 on: August 13, 2017, 03:04:35 AM »
What is a cycler asteroid?

I have no idea; that was your term.   My comment on "ease" was in relation to what I am proposing.  On that I can shed more light.  I have also noted your

Quote
He makes it seem that asteroid motion is manageable - is it? Perhaps he means an artificial asteroid? - which is a rocket.

What I have in mind is something like this:

There are asteroids whose orbits sometimes bring them close to Earth, but they  don't also go close to Mars; so they wouldn't be of much use in Earth-Mars transportation.   And the same goes for asteroids near Mars.    But we could pick one of these asteroids and force it into an elliptical orbit that at one time gets it very close to Earth and another time very close to Mars.  People or their goods could then be uploaded or downloaded as appropriate.  With enough such asteroids, one would have the equivalent of No. 12 buses or women of easy virtue: "if one goes by you, don't get worked up; just wait for a few minutes, and another one will be available shortly".

Getting an asteroid into such a position is obviously not especially easy, but only in principle: It is basically a matter of taking into account the very large number of bodies and gravitational forces between Earth and Mars and then appropriately positioning the asteroid.    The former is, essentially,  just a matter of really massive number crunching, for which a quantum computer will be very handy; and the latter is, essentially,  just a matter of firing a whole bunch of rockets.  One could even adjust for speed; indeed, my response to Terminator's "mining" suggestion reflects my belief that the speeds required for efficient transportation would exclude the "leisurely" activity of mining.

So, the real, fundamental question is this: how does one get some object---be it a small rock or a whole planet---into an orbit of one's choosing?    Plenty of good people have been working on that sort of thing, and the preliminary results look promising ... just a lot of maths and a large bunch of rockets.   For example, as a matter of intuition, there are two obvious solutions to "global warming", if the species Homo Sapiens will not accept responsibility and do the right thing: (a) cool the sun, or (b) move Earth into a farther-out orbit.    The former is really, really difficult.  The latter is being tackled, but I think any "sun-side" solution, such as just moving the planet is a fundamentally bad idea: one will still be stuck with the very people who f**ked up things in the first place and who could well just keep going with their bad behavior.   Anyways, ...  the basic idea does have some merits that are very relevant for the bigger-and-better things that we propose.  Here is a short, "layman's" report:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2001/jun/10/globalwarming.climatechange

and here is an academic paper (as "seen from the sun's side", but to the same effect):

Quote
In this paper, we have investigated the feasibility of gradually moving the Earth to a larger orbital radius in order to escape from the increasing radiative ?ux from the Sun. Our initial analysis shows that the general problem of long-term planetary engineering is almost alarmingly feasible using technologies that are currently under serious discussion. The eventual implementation of such a program, which is moderately beyond current technical capabilities, would profoundly extend the time over which our biosphere remains viable.
https://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0102126
(Note that the key is in forcing an asteroid into a specific orbit.)

NASA has some asteroid-tinkering projects in relation to Mars, but their scope appears to be rather modest ... perhaps the constraints of the Civil Service?  You can read about them on NASA's websites.  E.g.

Quote
NASA is developing a first-ever robotic mission to visit a large near-Earth asteroid, collect a multi-ton boulder from its surface, and redirect it into a stable orbit around the moon ... This Asteroid Redirect Mission
https://www.nasa.gov/content/what-is-nasa-s-asteroid-redirect-mission
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Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Tech bubble burst is nigh
« Reply #39 on: August 13, 2017, 04:25:47 AM »
ARM is a great alternative to spaceships - am not sure about "less costly" but the timelines are quite behind SpaceX's calendar. The thing with ARM I don't grasp is the existence of appropriate orbits - the ones running Earth-to-Mars or Mars-Jubiter - I get there are "stray" asteroids that near-collide with Earth now and then but are they stable and permanent? This is besides the small matter of successfully knocking asteroids into this orbit(s).

Developing from this asteroid positioning to positioning the Earth... nothing is beyond science, just a matter of time. By the way none of these solutions - a)moving to Mars via ARM or spacecrafts or b)shifting Earth to a further orbit from the burning sun - none of them solves the issue of the green-gas emitting folks you despise, do they? The global warmers. For the Mars solution they are likely to be early Martians owing to their deep pockets  :) The space enterprise is likely to go premium before getting round to the hoi polloi... and the early birds will have set up "industries" there to support the incoming masses :D - the tail and the dog.

Mining - this also entirely viable once the infrastructure is established. Say once we have a city up there - and the interplanetary fleets of spaceships become operational. A lot of stuff will be moved back and forth among the planets. ARM/cyclers and spaceships will be like the air and sea transport options for space travel. Other options will well emerge in the interplanetary system.

I desire to go to hell and not to heaven. In the former place I shall enjoy the company of popes, kings, and princes, while in the latter are only beggars, monks, and apostles. ~ Niccolo Machiavelli on his deathbed, June 1527