Shitholes and Africans/Blacks

[hk]

If you look at Africa  - nearly 1/4 of countries are already middle class - talking the botswana,namibia,south africa, mauritius,most of arab countries - and you have many in lower middle-income including kenya - and soon many will join - so by 1950 - I expect the average africa to be leading middle income earning at least 10k usd per year or more - and living in urban areas - and generally doing fine - and possibly before end of this century - it would have caught up with the rest of the world.

Methinks Pundit is a little too hopeful but I don't actually think it'll take us 200 years given we are not starting from scratch and going the whole route the same way, we are taking shortcuts. I just meant that there will be a time when Africans won't need to grapple with inferiority complexes occasioned by sharp differences in the economic advancement of their societies vs those of their contemporaries. 200 was a random number.

And all those middle class african countries have whites,asian or arabs who dominate their economies. I think the key to africa developing is to produce more by increasing productivity in every sector.

[Kichwa]

Everybody knows that Africa has great potential but everybody also knows that the potential cannot be actualized without a functioning and stable democracy. Economic development needs stability like human beings need air. The notion that you can ignore half of the country and still achieve economic development is stupid.  This is the beef I have with Kagame.  He should have spent more time in building a stable political system that can last for a long time to guarantee that the economic development that he has harnessed will last a long time. I remember in our primary school history class when asked to state five reasons why an empire collapsed, we knew one of the answers would be, "lack of a proper succession system" or something to that effect. Accept and move on worked in 2007 because of nusu mkate. In 2013, it worked because the opposition never saw what hit them and they did not know how to deal with the slick way of stealing elections.  In 2017 the opposition was ready and we are not going to accept and move on.

If you look at Africa  - nearly 1/4 of countries are already middle class - talking the botswana,namibia,south africa, mauritius,most of arab countries - and you have many in lower middle-income including kenya - and soon many will join - so by 1950 - I expect the average africa to be leading middle income earning at least 10k usd per year or more - and living in urban areas - and generally doing fine - and possibly before end of this century - it would have caught up with the rest of the world.

Methinks Pundit is a little too hopeful but I don't actually think it'll take us 200 years given we are not starting from scratch and going the whole route the same way, we are taking shortcuts. I just meant that there will be a time when Africans won't need to grapple with inferiority complexes occasioned by sharp differences in the economic advancement of their societies vs those of their contemporaries. 200 was a random number.

[Kichwa]

Talk about Economic Development without a stable political environment is like talking about furniture without a house.

If you look at Africa  - nearly 1/4 of countries are already middle class - talking the botswana,namibia,south africa, mauritius,most of arab countries - and you have many in lower middle-income including kenya - and soon many will join - so by 1950 - I expect the average africa to be leading middle income earning at least 10k usd per year or more - and living in urban areas - and generally doing fine - and possibly before end of this century - it would have caught up with the rest of the world.

Methinks Pundit is a little too hopeful but I don't actually think it'll take us 200 years given we are not starting from scratch and going the whole route the same way, we are taking shortcuts. I just meant that there will be a time when Africans won't need to grapple with inferiority complexes occasioned by sharp differences in the economic advancement of their societies vs those of their contemporaries. 200 was a random number.

And all those middle class african countries have whites,asian or arabs who dominate their economies. I think the key to africa developing is to produce more by increasing productivity in every sector.

[RV Pundit]

Kichwa not everything is about Odinga failed bid for PORK.

Everybody knows that Africa has great potential but everybody also knows that the potential cannot be actualized without a functioning and stable democracy. Economic development needs stability like human beings need air. The notion that you can ignore half of the country and still achieve economic development is stupid.  This is the beef I have with Kagame.  He should have spent more time in building a stable political system that can last for a long time to guarantee that the economic development that he has harnessed will last a long time. I remember in our primary school history class when asked to state five reasons why an empire collapsed, we knew one of the answers would be, "lack of a proper succession system" or something to that effect. Accept and move on worked in 2007 because of nusu mkate. In 2013, it worked because the opposition never saw what hit them and they did not know how to deal with the slick way of stealing elections.  In 2017 the opposition was ready and we are not going to accept and move on.

If you look at Africa  - nearly 1/4 of countries are already middle class - talking the botswana,namibia,south africa, mauritius,most of arab countries - and you have many in lower middle-income including kenya - and soon many will join - so by 1950 - I expect the average africa to be leading middle income earning at least 10k usd per year or more - and living in urban areas - and generally doing fine - and possibly before end of this century - it would have caught up with the rest of the world.

Methinks Pundit is a little too hopeful but I don't actually think it'll take us 200 years given we are not starting from scratch and going the whole route the same way, we are taking shortcuts. I just meant that there will be a time when Africans won't need to grapple with inferiority complexes occasioned by sharp differences in the economic advancement of their societies vs those of their contemporaries. 200 was a random number.

[RV Pundit]

Precisely

And all those middle class african countries have whites,asian or arabs who dominate their economies. I think the key to africa developing is to produce more by increasing productivity in every sector.

[Kichwa]

Pundito-Not everything is about Ruto and by the way, he will never be president.

Kichwa not everything is about Odinga failed bid for PORK.

Everybody knows that Africa has great potential but everybody also knows that the potential cannot be actualized without a functioning and stable democracy. Economic development needs stability like human beings need air. The notion that you can ignore half of the country and still achieve economic development is stupid.  This is the beef I have with Kagame.  He should have spent more time in building a stable political system that can last for a long time to guarantee that the economic development that he has harnessed will last a long time. I remember in our primary school history class when asked to state five reasons why an empire collapsed, we knew one of the answers would be, "lack of a proper succession system" or something to that effect. Accept and move on worked in 2007 because of nusu mkate. In 2013, it worked because the opposition never saw what hit them and they did not know how to deal with the slick way of stealing elections.  In 2017 the opposition was ready and we are not going to accept and move on.

If you look at Africa  - nearly 1/4 of countries are already middle class - talking the botswana,namibia,south africa, mauritius,most of arab countries - and you have many in lower middle-income including kenya - and soon many will join - so by 1950 - I expect the average africa to be leading middle income earning at least 10k usd per year or more - and living in urban areas - and generally doing fine - and possibly before end of this century - it would have caught up with the rest of the world.

Methinks Pundit is a little too hopeful but I don't actually think it'll take us 200 years given we are not starting from scratch and going the whole route the same way, we are taking shortcuts. I just meant that there will be a time when Africans won't need to grapple with inferiority complexes occasioned by sharp differences in the economic advancement of their societies vs those of their contemporaries. 200 was a random number.

[Kichwa]

You cannot even begin of talking about increasing productivity in every sector before you settle the political issues. We have reached a point in Kenya where political shenanigans cannot be swept under the rug.

Precisely

And all those middle class african countries have whites,asian or arabs who dominate their economies. I think the key to africa developing is to produce more by increasing productivity in every sector.

[Nefertiti]

Benevolent dictatorship is a proven system to leapfrog the economy. Look at the Asian Tigers and China. A few quarrelsome folks should have to go to exile for the greater good.

Talk about Economic Development without a stable political environment is like talking about furniture without a house.

If you look at Africa  - nearly 1/4 of countries are already middle class - talking the botswana,namibia,south africa, mauritius,most of arab countries - and you have many in lower middle-income including kenya - and soon many will join - so by 1950 - I expect the average africa to be leading middle income earning at least 10k usd per year or more - and living in urban areas - and generally doing fine - and possibly before end of this century - it would have caught up with the rest of the world.

Methinks Pundit is a little too hopeful but I don't actually think it'll take us 200 years given we are not starting from scratch and going the whole route the same way, we are taking shortcuts. I just meant that there will be a time when Africans won't need to grapple with inferiority complexes occasioned by sharp differences in the economic advancement of their societies vs those of their contemporaries. 200 was a random number.

And all those middle class african countries have whites,asian or arabs who dominate their economies. I think the key to africa developing is to produce more by increasing productivity in every sector.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto is very likely to be the 5th president of Kenya.

S - Jubilee behemoth
W - polarizing persona
O - new tribal alliances
T - betrayal by Gema

Odds: 70%

Pundito-Not everything is about Ruto and by the way, he will never be president.

Kichwa not everything is about Odinga failed bid for PORK.

Everybody knows that Africa has great potential but everybody also knows that the potential cannot be actualized without a functioning and stable democracy. Economic development needs stability like human beings need air. The notion that you can ignore half of the country and still achieve economic development is stupid.  This is the beef I have with Kagame.  He should have spent more time in building a stable political system that can last for a long time to guarantee that the economic development that he has harnessed will last a long time. I remember in our primary school history class when asked to state five reasons why an empire collapsed, we knew one of the answers would be, "lack of a proper succession system" or something to that effect. Accept and move on worked in 2007 because of nusu mkate. In 2013, it worked because the opposition never saw what hit them and they did not know how to deal with the slick way of stealing elections.  In 2017 the opposition was ready and we are not going to accept and move on.

If you look at Africa  - nearly 1/4 of countries are already middle class - talking the botswana,namibia,south africa, mauritius,most of arab countries - and you have many in lower middle-income including kenya - and soon many will join - so by 1950 - I expect the average africa to be leading middle income earning at least 10k usd per year or more - and living in urban areas - and generally doing fine - and possibly before end of this century - it would have caught up with the rest of the world.

Methinks Pundit is a little too hopeful but I don't actually think it'll take us 200 years given we are not starting from scratch and going the whole route the same way, we are taking shortcuts. I just meant that there will be a time when Africans won't need to grapple with inferiority complexes occasioned by sharp differences in the economic advancement of their societies vs those of their contemporaries. 200 was a random number.

[Nefertiti]

Robots & industry 4.0 is the new buzz. Will Africa catch up? There is a productivity acceleration (a shift!) in the west and emerging markets while Africa is yet to fully adopt the digital age. Every now and then I see a Kenyan on youtube attempting to launch a scrap jet like a kite

Precisely

And all those middle class african countries have whites,asian or arabs who dominate their economies. I think the key to africa developing is to produce more by increasing productivity in every sector.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto will win because his competition is wakina maDVD, Kalonzo, Mutua and possibly even Odinga. Ruto strategy should be to appear weak so they don't pull a kibaki by uniting behind one candidate. That is only threat I see - a united opposition and less enthusiatic gema (as one would expect). Of course Ruto learnt from the best so - he'll be instigating the likes of Mutua to ran against Kalonzo - the likes of Joho to ran - couple of Luhyas - and maybe even someone to challenge Raila in Luo Nyanza. Within GEMA - if they cannot support Ruto 100% - then best bet is for the vote to be splinterred - so no strong candidate - meru standing there - a tharaka - a muranga - a nyeri.


Plan A of course is to get Moi's KANU constituency of 90s - Kamatusa(nearly 20% of national vote)+somalis+small tribes+coast should already get Ruto past 30%. His biggest weakness right now is coast..they are still stuck with Raila...Ruto has to win the mijikenda votes without giving them DP or something big ....that leaves him needing about 15% - which he can make deal with any of BIG FOUR (GEMA,LUO,Kamba, Luhya).

Plan B is to imagine Jubilee coalition will remain intact - because it doesn't make sense to break a winning coalition.

All in all the biggest threat to Ruto remain Raila - he has to figure a way to divide NASA now - I'd give something to Wetangula or MadDVD or Kalonzo - but not all of them - just one or two - Wetangula is easy pick - Bukusu are already half-way in Jubilee - fire Eugene Wamalwa and hire Wetangula -  let Mutua loose on Kalonzo - maDVD will never get out of Maragoliland. And double down on Joho - until he let off the mijikenda. Crash him financially.

Ruto is very likely to be the 5th president of Kenya.

S - Jubilee behemoth
W - polarizing persona
O - new tribal alliances
T - betrayal by Gema

Odds: 70%

[Nefertiti]

Ruto will win because his competition is wakina maDVD, Kalonzo, Mutua and possibly even Odinga. Ruto strategy should be to appear weak so they don't pull a kibaki by uniting behind one candidate. That is only threat I see - a united opposition and less enthusiatic gema (as one would expect). Of course Ruto learnt from the best so - he'll be instigating the likes of Mutua to ran against Kalonzo - the likes of Joho to ran - couple of Luhyas - and maybe even someone to challenge Raila in Luo Nyanza. Within GEMA - if they cannot support Ruto 100% - then best bet is for the vote to be splinterred - so no strong candidate - meru standing there - a tharaka - a muranga - a nyeri.

The 50% clause makes betting on a divided opposition a tricky gamble. The math must add up upfront or end up with costly promises like the recent run-off. 

Plan A of course is to get Moi's KANU constituency of 90s - Kamatusa(nearly 20% of national vote)+somalis+small tribes+coast should already get Ruto past 30%. His biggest weakness right now is coast..they are still stuck with Raila...Ruto has to win the mijikenda votes without giving them DP or something big ....that leaves him needing about 15% - which he can make deal with any of BIG FOUR (GEMA,LUO,Kamba, Luhya).

Only Gema have a solid 20+% - the rest are 10% max. Weta is easy pick for Senate Majority Leader which is safe in stock with Murkomen. Ruto in new cabinet should pamper Bukusu and ignore Ababu? This chess I suspect is the real reason for the delay. Luo is a pipe dream without Raila.

Plan B is to imagine Jubilee coalition will remain intact - because it doesn't make sense to break a winning coalition.

A few pawns will be shaken off in new lineup. Gema has been nipped in the bud by roping in Meru (Kiraitu, Munya), Kikuyu (Kiunjuri). Murang'a cannot split with clueless PK. I think with Uhuru only Mandago anti-Kikuyu idiocy can lose significant Gema.

All in all the biggest threat to Ruto remain Raila - he has to figure a way to divide NASA now - I'd give something to Wetangula or MadDVD or Kalonzo - but not all of them - just one or two - Wetangula is easy pick - Bukusu are already half-way in Jubilee - fire Eugene Wamalwa and hire Wetangula -  let Mutua loose on Kalonzo - maDVD will never get out of Maragoliland. And double down on Joho - until he let off the mijikenda. Crash him financially.

Mijikenda is pulling teeth. He can continue propping Mvurya and Mung'aro & Mombasa crew with mixed returns. A battle of attrition.

I too see Ruto's chances as good despite the do-or-die nature of his nemesis. Jubilee 20-year MOU remains the real master stroke.

[hk]

Africa doesn't have to develop robots or the new craze just adopt technology to improve production.Emerging countries have benefited more from mobile telecommunication than the developed nations in terms leaps in increased efficiency. We need to invest in R&D to solve our problems. Kenya should probably have allocated cash on university research departments and commercialization instead of investing in Konza.
One of the key determinant of a country prosperity is economic freedom. This is where kenya is lagging behind even though we made progress on ease of doing business. To move up economic freedom indices we need to dismantle crony capitalism,liberalize every sector, privatize all government business holdings, limit the scope and size of government and ensure efficient regulations that don't impede investment. Uhuruto government is doing none of this, they're working hard to entrench cronyism.

[Nefertiti]

hk telecom is consumer with multiple applications that's why Sub Sahara benefited disproportionately. Robots are for manufacturing - I don't see big applicability for non-industrial economy. IoT and services maybe.

[RV Pundit]

From facebook - debunks all the theories about IQ and all that -  We just need to have skilled labour force. This I reckon is the Jubilee thinking. Kibaki had led the country a stray with campuses in every street  and with every candidate suddenly scoring an A. This is the time to go back to the basics...with Matiangi dishing Ds and Es...folks have to find something they can actually do with their hands. Jubilee has completed TTC in every constituency but with Kibaki era As - they were never gonna get students --- now the Ds and Es have to troop there and find careers as welders, mechanics, electricians, plumbers and such skills.

[Kichwa]

You spin everything jubilee does.  Ati now Matiangi gets credit for dishing out E's and D's because he wants to create a skilled labor force.

From facebook - debunks all the theories about IQ and all that -  We just need to have skilled labour force. This I reckon is the Jubilee thinking. Kibaki had led the country a stray with campuses in every street  and with every candidate suddenly scoring an A. This is the time to go back to the basics...with Matiangi dishing Ds and Es...folks have to find something they can actually do with their hands. Jubilee has completed TTC in every constituency but with Kibaki era As - they were never gonna get students --- now the Ds and Es have to troop there and find careers as welders, mechanics, electricians, plumbers and such skills.

[Nefertiti]

I don't know about the politics but am sold on the need for TTC - handman training for the manufacturing and cottage industry. Companies also need to stop the ignorance of demanding a degree for every job. The Kibaki era MBA craze - you'd imagine the economy would double with the number of graduation ceremonies. Instead there is no notable improvement from all those paper tigers.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I don't know about the politics but am sold on the need for TTC - handman training for the manufacturing and cottage industry. Companies also need to stop the ignorance of demanding a degree for every job. The Kibaki era MBA craze - you'd imagine the economy would double with the number of graduation ceremonies. Instead there is no notable improvement from all those paper tigers.

More arduino types and less of the lax monoidal functor types.  Fundis, with some business skills, that do valuable work and get paid for it. 

[Nefertiti]

I don't know about the politics but am sold on the need for TTC - handman training for the manufacturing and cottage industry. Companies also need to stop the ignorance of demanding a degree for every job. The Kibaki era MBA craze - you'd imagine the economy would double with the number of graduation ceremonies. Instead there is no notable improvement from all those paper tigers.

More arduino types and less of the lax monoidal functor types.  Fundis, with some business skills, that do valuable work and get paid for it.

Yes. Even white collar jobs - a Kenya Poly CE diploma is a better programmer than a JKUAT CS degree. But Safaricom wowed by whitepaper types hires the theory guy - who promptly upgrades to MBA - to be a project engineer. Don't ask why they have struggled to create anything since M-pesa. Except new ringtones. It's a culture issue I think.