Nipate

Ruto cant lose - here - I have been very generous

STRONGHOLDS IN PERCENTAGES:

KALONZO
TAITA TAVETA
ISIOLO
MERU
THARAKA - NITHI
EMBU
KITUI
MACHAKOS
MAKUENI
NYANDARUA
NYERI
KIRINYAGA
MURANG'A
LAIKIPIA
NAKURU
KAJIADO
KIAMBU
37%

RUTO
TURKANA
WEST POKOT
TRANS NZOIA
UASIN GISHU
ELGEYO/MARAKWET
NANDI
BARINGO
KERICHO
BOMET
NAROK
GARISSA
WAJIR
MANDERA
MARSABIT
BUSIA
SIAYA
KISUMU
HOMA BAY
MIGORI
31%


50:50 SWING
KAKAMEGA
VIHIGA
BUNGOMA
NYAMIRA
KISII
12%

Kalonzo 37% + 6%=43%
Ruto 31% +6 %=37%


Kalonzo leaning SWING VOTES
MOMBASA
LAMU
KWALE
KILIFI
SAMBURU
TANA RIVER
NAIROBI CITY
19%

Kalonzo 43% + 10% = 51%
Ruto 37% + 9%=45%

The result will be most likely

Kalonzo +51% Vs Ruto +-45%

Ruto already know this,How will he stop it from happening because there is ABSOLUTELY NO PATHWAY TO RE-ELECTION.

I have given him 100% Turkana,Pokot,Jaluo,rigging and even somali which is IMPOSSIBLE even if he stuffs ballots,We even dont know how Jaluo turnout will be because there have no enthusiasim of being in the ballot.I doubt he will cross past 40% vote.

How will he handle defeat?

You need a spreadsheet. RV Pundit amelewa pombe.

We still have few things to do proper MOAS.
Let wait for by-election.
And Uhuru gameplan.

But so far roughly speaking I see Kindiki v Ruto at 55% -  with Joho 54%  - with Oparanya/Wanga - 53%

Let me give WORSE CASE scenario for Ruto.
1) Ruto loses Mbeere and he drops Kindiki
2) He pick any ODM (Joho, Oparanya, Wanga)
3) Mt kenya become so angry they decide to take themselves out for 2 decades   Kalonzo-Matiangi kumi Kumi.
4) Ruto scores least in GEMA, Kamba, Gusii and even 30% of Luhyas (DAP) vote opposition.


Let see by-election - and we will have more clarity.

I see Kindiki winning Mbeere - and taking over Mt Kenya East.
Murima will realize RUto cannot be beaten
They will decide it better to control their anger for 5yrs - and back Kindiki - than take themselves out for 20yrs.
Kindiki will get lot of Murima votes in RV diaspora and Mt kenya East.

Ruto will have weaken ODM and they will do a deal - without DPORK

ODM will get 1) 50% of cabinet and 2) Ruto will allow them to keep ODM zones - no competition from UDA - though Ruto can take over - so Kakamega Bonny Khawale has seen this from far.

If Ruto lose Malava and Mbeere - it will be Kiambaa type avalanche that seal his fate. Those were his terriories before.

Opposition will solidify in Kamba, Gema, Luhya and Gusii.
Ruto is URP and Luo. Add him half Mijikenda.

You should update that MOAS thread.
Githunguri is scatterbrained but his rough MOAS is 55% Kalonzo. Challenge him.

Hii hubris yako ati 60%.
IF joint oppostion stick it can be NARC - don't underestimate the potential synergy/optics wave.

There is no ODM. They are bickering over Luo 10% - if Ruto give them DPORK that is all he gets.

Rest of the cookie has crumbled.You can almost run Ruto vs Kalonzo MOAS now.
It seems we are 50-50 like 2022. I don't know where you get Ruto 60%.
He only has solid Kamatusa and pastoralists.

I guess we want to wait and see if opposition stick together. That is the main sticker now.

UDA had 50%;
40% of 50% =20%.
Remove that 20% to DCP column
Ruto remain with 30%.
Maybe Remove Weta+MaDVD - 5%- 25%
Add the Ruto gains in KA(Pokot) MATUSA +Somali+Coast+Luhya (MaDVD has joined).
Ruto you can say has added 10%.
That makes him 35%.
Return MaDVD+Weta 5%.
Now if Kindiki wins Mt kenya East - he can bring 5%.


Do we even need ODM at this point?

Ruto can just rig that 5%

But no need ODM bring their 20%

And Ruto make it 60% - plus Kindiki 65%