Nipate

Poleni but Ruto ni moto. Next 3 months - ODM get swallowed. Ruto will control Kamatusa, Somali+Borans, Coast, Luos, Luhyas, half Gusii, Iteso and all small tribes.
Kindiki will be doing damage in Mt Kenya East.
When I sum up all this - Ruto is already at 65% of the vote.
Kikuyus at 20% plus Kambas 10% plus other people who dont like Ruto = 35%.
Now I dont think Ruto will want to lose all Kikuyus and kambas.
So bado iko kazi hapo - Ruto will aim to get 20-30% of that pie - 10%.
Generally Ruto will pursue Uhuru's Jubilee and even Kalonzo.

In short prepare for 70% winning margin by Ruto in 2022 against helpless Gathietha.

Stupid moves will be checkmated.Nobody has monopoly of the state.

GEMA voted for Ruto simply because he had supported them in 2013 and 2017 .
Uhuru betrayed GEMA by handshaking Raila and GEMA refused to follow him.
Similarly Ruto miscalculated by impeaching Gachagua and Broadbaising Raila and GEMA will punish Ruto .
Secondly Majority of ODM dislike Ruto . Ruto has fought Raila for 15 years this has an effect . Even if Ruto was to buy ODM he will only get a quarter of ODM electorate .
To be honest Ruto lost from the first day he was sworn in to be President then Genz revolution killed his legitimacy .

Njamba use to teach us about how kikuyu think.
Kikuyu basically think they own kenya -
they are very angry that they have failed to nail Nairobi governorship - because they see themselves as owning most of Nairobi - historically sharing it with Maa.
Their support for Sakaja was never genuine.
They dont care about Merus or Kindiki or Embus.
Even Kiambu and Nyeri kikuyu have serious entitlement issues.
2022 - Uhuru fixed them. They never liked Ruto or Raila but when it came down - Ruto was better idea - as it came with added advantage of diaspora peace
They know Ruto ni moto moto now.
With those factoid - you can easily tell how they will play with.

The way I see Kikuyu will do PROPER REAL MATHS.
They will know Ruto is gone gone with ODM/Raila.

They will try to ensare silly Kalonzo but if it doesnt work - they will aim for 2032 - by putting a candidate out to become 2nd to Ruto

Quote from: Modesty Blaise on January 13, 2026, 10:00:36 PM

Well Githunguri was with me backing Raila. They fought with Nowayhaha.
Now Nowayhaha thinks Ruto will be 3rd.

You seem convinced Kikuyu will follow Kindiki - so as to succeed Ruto.
But they are with RiggyG who is backing Kalonzo. Should vs will.

That Kikuyu logic can you apply to Babu Owino - he is polling top in Luo - and you want him to be Sakaja deputy.
He must be working hard for that supergig - deliver Luo get govenor.

Quote from: RV Pundit on January 13, 2026, 09:29:59 PM

Take themselves out another 10-20yrs.
I dont see it happening.
Listen more to Githunguri - he has better political lense than you.
You operate like a baby in kenya politics

Quote from: Modesty Blaise on January 13, 2026, 09:18:25 PM

That Kikuyu selfishness or turnout theory collapsed in 2022.
They turned up to crown Ruto and Sakaja.
No reason they won't do it for Kalonzo and Babu Owino.

Well its a nice plan if I was a Kikuyu like you. I'd push it. Shida tu Ruto is political giant.

In any case - if Rigathi become 2nds - it put him in good stead in 2032 against Kindikis

Quote from: Githunguri on January 13, 2026, 08:18:15 PM

In a Run-off between Gachagua and Ruto,

Gachagua wins,He will have money,mouth and ability to consolidate goons and element within the security apparatus.

Stupid moves will be checkmated.Nobody has monopoly of the state.

Riggy or someone from Kikuyu will run.
Ngojea Limuru conference.

But am saying exactly what you are saying: Kikuyu are backing Kalonzo.

You are saying Kikuyu will dump Riggy cause he is ineligible and toxic.
But his argument is his ineligibility is political not legal. This sells.
So they back Kalonzo, then Riggy gets his shot in 2032.
If Ruto wins, he will permanently destroy Riggy.

Secondly, where is the credible Riggy challenger?

Now why sacrifice Gakuya for Babu Owino? Simple: to beat Ruto. Not for nothing.
You are saying Riggy does not have the power over Kikuyu to make this move. I think he does.

Quote from: RV Pundit on January 13, 2026, 10:27:07 PM

Njamba use to teach us about how kikuyu think.
Kikuyu basically think they own kenya -
they are very angry that they have failed to nail Nairobi governorship - because they see themselves as owning most of Nairobi - historically sharing it with Maa.
Their support for Sakaja was never genuine.
They dont care about Merus or Kindiki or Embus.
Even Kiambu and Nyeri kikuyu have serious entitlement issues.
2022 - Uhuru fixed them. They never liked Ruto or Raila but when it came down - Ruto was better idea - as it came with added advantage of diaspora peace
They know Ruto ni moto moto now.
With those factoid - you can easily tell how they will play with.

The way I see Kikuyu will do PROPER REAL MATHS.
They will know Ruto is gone gone with ODM/Raila.

They will try to ensare silly Kalonzo but if it doesnt work - they will aim for 2032 - by putting a candidate out to become 2nd to Ruto

Quote from: Modesty Blaise on January 13, 2026, 10:00:36 PM

Well Githunguri was with me backing Raila. They fought with Nowayhaha.
Now Nowayhaha thinks Ruto will be 3rd.

You seem convinced Kikuyu will follow Kindiki - so as to succeed Ruto.
But they are with RiggyG who is backing Kalonzo. Should vs will.

That Kikuyu logic can you apply to Babu Owino - he is polling top in Luo - and you want him to be Sakaja deputy.
He must be working hard for that supergig - deliver Luo get govenor.

Well it's not yet end of history as you predicted.

We are here debating it. Instead of shutting down the site.

There is NO scenario where Ruto loses post Raila. HAKUNA. Ruto has TRILLIONS, he is crazy campaigner, he has gov machinery, he just cannot lose.

Quote from: Modesty Blaise on January 13, 2026, 10:04:53 PM

A Ruto loss leaves RiggyG in a very good position.