Nipate

Where you go wrong is your whole premise of winning 2027 was Raila being in your side and now that he is gone ODM on your side .
First there is nothing like KAMATUSA
Maasai most definitely are anti Ruto
Turkana always split their votes same as Samburu
Somali Ruto performed extremely badly in 2022 he was defeated by Raila there. They will also split their votes
Luo will never vote for Ruto they hate him with passion for the last 17 years he has been fighting them and main reason Raila never became president . Just like GEMA refused to vote for Raila after handshake same way Luo wont vote for Ruto.
As for Luhyas and Coast he will perform the same way he did in 2022
Gussii My Kenya East voting for Ruto is beyond a fantasy even the thought of that is pure madness
Ruto is a One Term President 

Poleni but Ruto ni moto. Next 3 months - ODM get swallowed. Ruto will control Kamatusa, Somali+Borans, Coast, Luos, Luhyas, half Gusii, Iteso and all small tribes.
Kindiki will be doing damage in Mt Kenya East.
When I sum up all this - Ruto is already at 65% of the vote.
Kikuyus at 20% plus Kambas 10% plus other people who dont like Ruto = 35%.
Now I dont think Ruto will want to lose all Kikuyus and kambas.
So bado iko kazi hapo - Ruto will aim to get 20-30% of that pie - 10%.
Generally Ruto will pursue Uhuru's Jubilee and even Kalonzo.

In short prepare for 70% winning margin by Ruto in 2022 against helpless Gathietha.

Quote from: Githunguri on January 14, 2026, 12:46:52 AM

Stupid moves will be checkmated.Nobody has monopoly of the state.

Poleni but Ruto ni moto. Next 3 months - ODM get swallowed. Ruto will control Kamatusa, Somali+Borans, Coast, Luos, Luhyas, half Gusii, Iteso and all small tribes.
Kindiki will be doing damage in Mt Kenya East.
When I sum up all this - Ruto is already at 65% of the vote.
Kikuyus at 20% plus Kambas 10% plus other people who dont like Ruto = 35%.
Now I dont think Ruto will want to lose all Kikuyus and kambas.
So bado iko kazi hapo - Ruto will aim to get 20-30% of that pie - 10%.
Generally Ruto will pursue Uhuru's Jubilee and even Kalonzo.

In short prepare for 70% winning margin by Ruto in 2022 against helpless Gathietha.

Stupid moves will be checkmated.Nobody has monopoly of the state.

GEMA voted for Ruto simply because he had supported them in 2013 and 2017 .
Uhuru betrayed GEMA by handshaking Raila and GEMA refused to follow him.
Similarly Ruto miscalculated by impeaching Gachagua and Broadbaising Raila and GEMA will punish Ruto .
Secondly Majority of ODM dislike Ruto . Ruto has fought Raila for 15 years this has an effect . Even if Ruto was to buy ODM he will only get a quarter of ODM electorate .
To be honest Ruto lost from the first day he was sworn in to be President then Genz revolution killed his legitimacy .

Njamba use to teach us about how kikuyu think.
Kikuyu basically think they own kenya -
they are very angry that they have failed to nail Nairobi governorship - because they see themselves as owning most of Nairobi - historically sharing it with Maa.
Their support for Sakaja was never genuine.
They dont care about Merus or Kindiki or Embus.
Even Kiambu and Nyeri kikuyu have serious entitlement issues.
2022 - Uhuru fixed them. They never liked Ruto or Raila but when it came down - Ruto was better idea - as it came with added advantage of diaspora peace
They know Ruto ni moto moto now.
With those factoid - you can easily tell how they will play with.

The way I see Kikuyu will do PROPER REAL MATHS.
They will know Ruto is gone gone with ODM/Raila.

They will try to ensare silly Kalonzo but if it doesnt work - they will aim for 2032 - by putting a candidate out to become 2nd to Ruto

Quote from: Modesty Blaise on January 13, 2026, 10:00:36 PM

Well Githunguri was with me backing Raila. They fought with Nowayhaha.
Now Nowayhaha thinks Ruto will be 3rd.

You seem convinced Kikuyu will follow Kindiki - so as to succeed Ruto.
But they are with RiggyG who is backing Kalonzo. Should vs will.

That Kikuyu logic can you apply to Babu Owino - he is polling top in Luo - and you want him to be Sakaja deputy.
He must be working hard for that supergig - deliver Luo get govenor.

Quote from: RV Pundit on January 13, 2026, 09:29:59 PM

Take themselves out another 10-20yrs.
I dont see it happening.
Listen more to Githunguri - he has better political lense than you.
You operate like a baby in kenya politics

Quote from: Modesty Blaise on January 13, 2026, 09:18:25 PM

That Kikuyu selfishness or turnout theory collapsed in 2022.
They turned up to crown Ruto and Sakaja.
No reason they won't do it for Kalonzo and Babu Owino.

Well its a nice plan if I was a Kikuyu like you. I'd push it. Shida tu Ruto is political giant.

In any case - if Rigathi become 2nds - it put him in good stead in 2032 against Kindikis

Quote from: Githunguri on January 13, 2026, 08:18:15 PM

In a Run-off between Gachagua and Ruto,

Gachagua wins,He will have money,mouth and ability to consolidate goons and element within the security apparatus.

Stupid moves will be checkmated.Nobody has monopoly of the state.