It all depends on the premise. If you believe like Pundit that: 1) ICC was never a factor 2) no change in tribal voting patterns over the last five years 3) the 2013 election numbers were never interfered with 4) Ourutu governed brilliantly and Kenyans are better off than they were 5 years ago, bla, blaa and blaaa, then the MOAS is correct. However, if you believe that any of those other factors have changed and will have an effect on the voting patterns as we in NASA do, then you have to believe that NASA is running strong and will prevail on nane-nane if the elections are free and fair. Its that simple.
This is is quite thorough and the most intelligent guesstimate I've come across so far,and I think it will be negligibly off if not on point. Nobody wants to be told they are losing so I expect it to be dismissed with utter contempt.
1. ICC brought two tribal blocs together, in its place we have incumbency. RVGEMA will vote them back almost to man to protect their power. Whether they benefit from it is another matter.
2. Tribe remains KING in Kenya no doubt. NASA is nothing but another tribal outfit. It is the perceived votes or control over their respective tribes that earned them those positions. Only Baba is relatively national meaning he has major appeal outside his kinsmen. Rutto was injected in as an attempt to chip off Kalenjins. So tribe was and still is a factor.
3. There's zero evidence of rigging in 2013. The numbers in parliament if nothing else tells it all, not to mention hordes of international observers. If you believe in Baba theories, then you probably subscribe to chemtrails nonsense.
4. I'd rate their performance at 5/6 in a scale of 1-10. Which means they will impress as well as piss off in equal measure, which means their performance is unlikely to affect their votes
The MOAS is a sensible prediction in my opinion.
